Telangana Faces 40% August Rainfall Deficit Despite Above-Normal Forecasts

Telangana has recorded a 40 per cent overall rainfall deficit in August despite initial forecasts projecting normal to above-normal precipitation across parts of the state, according to India Meteorological Department officials in Hyderabad.

At the start of August, meteorologists anticipated above-normal rainfall in north and northeast Telangana districts, alongside normal to below-normal showers in western and southern areas. However, actual precipitation levels have dropped sharply across the state.

Senior IMD scientist G.N.R.S. Murthy stated that dry conditions are expected to persist over the coming days. The next four to five days will not see rainfall activity on the scale observed in July, though weather officials hope a low-pressure area or depression might form over the Bay of Bengal towards the final week of August to help reduce the deficit.

Murthy noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—which can offset the adverse effects of El Nino—remains in a neutral phase according to IMD observations and is likely to continue in that state through the remainder of the southwest monsoon season. While some international models suggest the IOD is turning positive, meteorologists are maintaining a wait-and-watch approach.

Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet has downgraded its nationwide monsoon projection from 94 per cent to 85 per cent of the 50-year long period average. In an advisory issued on Monday, Skymet projected nationwide rainfall at 84 per cent of the LPA for August and 80 per cent for September, citing a strengthening El Nino and uncertainty around the IOD.