No widespread heavy rain for Telangana as state faces 8 percent seasonal deficit

Meteorologists have ruled out widespread heavy rainfall across Telangana and Hyderabad in the near future despite light showers on Wednesday, forecasting mostly light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells across the state.

According to Y.V. Rama Rao, senior weather consultant at the Telangana Development Planning Society, there are no indications of a fresh low-pressure area or depression forming over the Bay of Bengal to trigger substantial rainfall. Most monsoon activity remains concentrated over northern India, leading to subdued weather conditions across the region.

Rama Rao explained that the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation is not favoring the formation of rain-bearing weather systems. The state had previously experienced a significant wet spell in the last week of July, driven by a depression that crossed the Odisha coast and moved towards central India, bringing heavy rain to northern Telangana, Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh.

That late July rainfall helped reduce the seasonal rainfall deficit. Telangana recorded 11.5 cm of rainfall in June against a normal of 13 cm, marking a 12% deficit. In July, rainfall reached 22.4 cm against a normal of 22.7 cm, narrowing the monthly deficit to 1%.

Cumulative figures from June 1 to date show Telangana has received 41 cm of rainfall against the normal average of 44.5 cm, leaving an overall seasonal deficit of about 8%. In the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) region, total rainfall stands at 30.2 cm against the normal 34.6 cm, translating to a 13% deficit.

The absence of widespread cloud cover has driven daytime temperatures above normal levels across the state. Maximum temperatures, which typically range between 31°C and 34°C in Telangana and 29°C to 31°C in Hyderabad during this period, are currently hovering between 34°C and 37°C statewide and 32°C to 34°C in the city. Minimum temperatures have also stayed above normal.

Looking ahead, the Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) forecast a 98% probability of El Niño conditions prevailing from August 2026 to March 2027. Scientists noted that subsurface warm anomalies exceeding 3°C have spread across the equatorial Pacific, signaling the development of El Niño, which is generally associated with weaker Indian monsoon rainfall and heightened marine heatwaves.