IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rains and Warmer Weather for Telangana in September

HYDERABAD — Telangana is set to experience below-normal rainfall and warmer than average temperatures throughout September, according to a forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) during an online press conference on Monday.

The dry outlook for the final month of the southwest monsoon comes as Telangana already faces an average rainfall deficit of minus-17 per cent, with August alone recording a standalone deficit of minus-38 per cent. IMD Director-General Dr Sanjay Mahapatra stated that while forecast models had previously indicated normal to above-normal precipitation for peninsular India and Telangana during August, the state did not receive the expected rainfall.

The shortfall in September rains is expected to further compound the existing deficit and affect groundwater levels across the state. In addition, the forecast projects below-normal rainfall across nearly all of neighbouring Maharashtra and Karnataka, which is likely to reduce inflows into major reservoirs situated along the Krishna and Godavari rivers in Telangana.

According to the IMD, a strengthening El Nino pattern is driving the dry and hot conditions. The weather phenomenon is projected to persist through next summer and may remain in a fairly strong phase into May 2027. Dr Mahapatra noted that it was too early to determine what the prolonged presence of El Nino would mean for future southwest monsoon seasons.

Although new low-pressure systems are expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal during September, meteorological projections suggest they will follow the path of five similar August systems, tracking in a northwesterly direction toward Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and parts of Odisha rather than bringing precipitation to peninsular India.

Efforts to offset the El Nino effect have also been hampered by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which returned to a neutral state after briefly showing signs of entering a positive phase. A positive IOD typically warms the Arabian Sea and supports rainfall activity across peninsular India.