El Nino in Central Pacific Ocean Expected to Peak by November End

This year’s El Nino weather phenomenon over the central Pacific Ocean, which is expected to become the strongest in recorded history, was projected to peak towards the end of November or in December, according to meteorological assessments reported from Hyderabad.

The weather pattern, which has already severely impacted rainfall, began forming in the middle of May. However, experts noted that significant uncertainty remains regarding how long the conditions will linger before dissipating to make way for a La Nina phase, which is traditionally favourable for the Indian monsoon.

A senior meteorologist pointed out that while the presence of El Nino is established, predicting its exact duration remains difficult. The phenomenon took approximately six months to reach its peak and could take several additional months from December onwards to fully dissipate.

Meteorologists warned that caution is warranted regarding the prospects for the upcoming southwest monsoon season. Because La Nina can only begin forming once El Nino subsides, an extended presence of El Nino into the first half of next year could place the next monsoon under a cloud.

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, the El Nino phenomenon typically takes between nine and 12 months to form and dissipate.

NOAA data indicates that ocean temperatures across the El Nino region currently range from +2.9 degrees Celsius in the Nino 1+2 region to +1.7 degrees Celsius in Nino 3, and +1.4 degrees Celsius in the Nino 3-4 region. These numbered regions indicate increasing distance from the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in South America, where El Nino initially develops before spreading westward across the Pacific Ocean.